Stock Trading Christmas Eve
A Little Hope for the Festive Season After a Turbulent Storm
Tricky would be a choice world to describe global equity throughout the second
half of this year. Stock markets and economies appear to be balancing on a
knife edge with the chances of a global recession as high as 50/50 according
to some analysts.
The credit crisis, interest rates, inflation, government debt and consumer
spending are all interconnected and will form the focus for 2008. Last week,
global stock markets closed a jittery week strongly with sentiment swinging
around the news flow of these five factors. On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100
closed up over 2% on better than expected consumer spending numbers and
earnings reports from Research In Motion (Blackberry) and Oracle Corp.
The FTSE was one of the strongest markets last week on news that the last
interest rate cut was voted for unanimously. This may increase the chances of
a series of further rate cuts, with the next cut expected to come as soon as
January 10th.The MPC said that a “substantial loosening of policy”might be
needed to head off the risks to economic growth from the credit squeeze.
Sterling plummeted to its lowest levels for three months against the dollar
and to near its all time low against the Euro. UK shoppers hopping over to
New York for Christmas shopping will have had much less of a bargain than
hoped as the USD/ GBP exchange rate dropped below $2 to the pound on
Thursday.
A dramatic surge in Government Borrowing also affected sentiment as data from
the Office of National Statistics showed that the UK’s current account
deficit had doubled in the third quarter to £20bn. This is now the biggest
deficit in cash terms, at 5.7% of GDP and is now bigger than the US deficit
comparatively.
However a rate cut in January isn’t a done deal with inflation fears
persisting. A ‘no change’ verdict is most likely at the next meeting,
according to many senior economists and interest rate futures. Libor (London
Inter Bank Lending Rate) fell last week on the back of the global central
bank ‘rescue’ plan. It is hoped that the easing of this rate means that
credit markets will begin to flow again in the New Year without the need for
another rate cut.
There is much talk of the Santa Clause rally coming into effect between the
close on Christmas Eve and New Years Eve. Since 1940 the S&P 500 has been up
during this period 76% of the time with an average gain of 0.8%. The effect
has diminished in recent years according to Bespoke Investments with the S&P
500 actually posting a decline on average during the festive period since the
start of the current bull market in 2003.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac when the rally doesn’t appear, it can
be bad news for the stock market. “If Santa Clause should fail to call; bears
may come to Broad Wall” as they put it. This was certainly on the mark back
in 2000.
Next week there is a reduced Christmas trading calendar. Most notable are US
core durable goods orders & consumer confidence on Thursday. On Friday, house
price sentiment will again dominate with the UK’s Nationwide house price data
and US new home sales released at the end of the week.
Thursday and Friday’s strength was impressive, but it could be argued that the
rally from Tuesday was too far too fast. We are entering a seasonably
positive period, but the speed of Friday’s rally may have exhausted the
bulls’ enthusiasm earlier than expected.
Therefore a no touch higher may be the better option for the Christmas week
and beyond. This allows for some minor further upside while providing
exposure to churning market over the next month. A ‘No Touch’higher on the
S&P 500 with the trigger set to 1590 over 35 days returns a yield of 10%.
This level is 14 points higher than the all time high posted in October.
- THE END -
Contact Details:
Name: Mike Wright
Tel: 448003762737
Email: editor@my.regentmarkets.com
Url: Betonmarkets.com & Betonmarkets.co.uk
Address:
Regent Markets (IOM) Limited
3rd Floor, 1-5 Church Street
Douglas, Isle of Man
IM1 2AG
About the Author
Regent Markets is the world’s leading fixed odds financial trading group.
Through its main multi-award winning websites, BetOnMarkets.com and
BetOnMarkets.co.uk, it has established itself as the leading global
provider of a unique, powerful way to trade the world’s major financial
markets. The number, length and variety of trades available to our clients
exists nowhere else in the world.
|
|
12 Days Of Christmas Eve $23.38 12 Days Of Christmas Eve |
|
|
Christmas Eve Blizzard $32.81 Nicholas and his grandfather rescue a cardinal stuck in a blizzard on Christmas Eve. |
|
|
Great Pyrenees Cards, pk of 10, Christmas Eve Pyrenean mountain dog Greeting Cards Pk of 10 by CafePress $21 Great Pyrenees Christmas Cards, pk of 10, Christmas Eve Pyrenean mountain dog Greeting Cards Pk of 10 Greeting cards are a great way to express yourself and to keep in touch with friends and family. A personal note on a beautiful card will make a lasting impression and a touching keepsake.Available in your choice of paper stock |
|
|
Minerva Louise on Christmas Eve $25.67 A curious little white chicken, Minerva Louise is fascinated by the red-suited stranger who goes into the farmer?s house on Christmas Eve. Following him inside, she discovers her own special, humorous take on Christmas. With clear, simple, colorful illustrations. |
|
|
Christmas Eve Good Night (Hardcover) $19.14 On Christmas Eve, animals at the North Pole, gingerbread men, robots, and more say good night to their mommas, papas, and buddies. |
|
|
Wait ‘Till the Sun Shines, Nellie $45.6 Used – High Quality Content by WIKIPEDIA articles! The music was written by Harry Von Tilzer, the lyrics by Andrew B. Sterling. The song was published in 1905. The song has been recorded many times and is now considered a pop standard. In a long-standing tradition, floor traders at the New York Stock Exchange sing this song on the last trading day of every year and on Christmas Eve.The song has been the stock exchange anthem at least back as far as 1934.It is also a popular song in Barbershop mu |
