Trading After Market Close

What’s your stock market prediction for Monday, July 14? IndyMac takeover was announced after close…?

… on Friday, so the market had no chance to react (maybe something happened in after-hours trading, I don’t know). Do you think stock traders will see the takeover as a big negative and hammer stocks again, or celebrate because the government is riding to the rescue again, or not react?

Thanks,
Houyhnhnm
Net Advisor, I’m not asking about IndyMac stock specifically. I’m interested in how the overall stock market will react.

The key is how the public reacts. If they make the connection between the size of the sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages outstanding (huge, over a trn USD) and the present level of FDIC capital (small, 50+bn) to make depositors whole (even those with 100k or less), they may decide on a safer alternative to US banks like US Treasury Bills. If they do that, runs on other thrifts and even a money center bank can’t be ruled out. This is also terrible for Fanny and Freddy (Freddy has big debt to roll this wk) and bad for investment banks who have been under pressure like Lehman.
I expect the S&P to open at 12,000, down about 3%. That is weak support. Real support is at 11,000, which is where we’re headed.


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